Governed climate hazard models
Eight governed hazard models plus an integrated flood view, and transition / carbon-pricing screening. Each publishes its inputs, data sources, scenarios and what the bands mean, anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.
Shared risk-band axis
- Low — Limited screening exposure under the assessed conditions
- Medium — Elevated screening exposure worth monitoring and planning for
- High — Priority exposure requiring more detailed review using site-specific information
Multi-input hazard and transition models
Composite models that combine several signals and project across scenarios and horizons.
Coastal flooding
Compound coastal water levels: sea-level rise, tides and storm surge read together at the shoreline.
View modelRiver (fluvial) flooding
Where rivers overtop their banks, and how that exposure shifts as the climate warms.
View modelPluvial (surface-water) flooding
Intense rainfall overwhelming local drainage: the flooding that happens away from rivers.
View modelIntegrated flooding
River and surface-water flood exposure read together on one band-aligned axis.
View modelTropical cyclone
Cyclone wind exposure from historical tracks, scaled to a warming world.
View modelExtreme heat
Heat stress on people, processes and assets, indexed across scenarios and horizons.
View modelTransition risk & carbon pricing
What carbon prices do to the bottom line across the NGFS Orderly, Disorderly, Too Little Too Late and Hot House World pathways.
View modelSingle-signal screening models
Focused screens built on a single dominant signal: useful early flags for deeper review.
Cold & freeze
Cold extremes and freeze exposure: the hazard that does not disappear in a warming world.
View modelLandslide
Rainfall-triggered slope failure where intense rain meets steep ground.
View modelDrought
Sustained moisture deficit: the slow hazard that stresses water, supply and operations.
View modelEvery model, versioned and change-controlled
Each hazard is assessed with a single governed model under formal version and change control, anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate datasets. This is the register, with the same identifiers used in client reports.
| Hazard | Model (version) | Type | Primary data sources | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Flooding | coastal_flooding_v3 (v3.0) | acute | Satellite-derived & CCKP sea-level-rise projections with JRC coastal astronomical-tide and extreme storm-surge return-period datasets | Point-asset elevation |
| River Flooding | river_flooding_v3_aqueduct (v3.0) | acute | Global river-flood hydrodynamic modelling driven by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble | ~1 km (30 arc-second) |
| Integrated Flood | integrated_flood_v1 (v1.0) | derived view | Derived from the governed riverine and surface-water (pluvial) flood models — a reporting view, not a separate model | Combined (river ∪ pluvial) |
| Tropical Cyclone – CHAZ Category AEP (GWL) | tropical_cyclone_screening_v2 (v2.0) | acute | Historical best-track observations + synthetic tropical-cyclone ensemble, referenced to global-warming levels | Track-based |
| Pluvial Flooding | pluvial_flood_composite (v1.3) | acute | CMIP6 precipitation-extreme indices + terrain (DEM flow concentration) + urban built-up surface from global settlement data | ~250 m urban covariates |
| Extreme Heat | heat_v3_threshold_recalibrated (v3.0) | chronic | CMIP6 temperature extremes, humid-heat (heat-index) exceedance, cumulative heat-load indices | 0.25° grid |
| Extreme Cold | cold_v2 (v2.0) | chronic | CMIP6 minimum-temperature projections (cold-degree-days, annual-minimum temperature) | 0.25° grid |
| Landslides | landslide_v1 (v1.0) | acute | CMIP6 extreme-rainfall indices + DEM slope | 0.25° grid + DEM slope |
| Drought | drought_v1 (v1.0) | chronic | CMIP6 precipitation projections | 0.25° grid |
Plus transition / carbon-price screening on the NGFS Phase 5.1 dataset. Every hazard runs on a single governed model under formal version and change control.
See how a model reads in practice
Open any model for its inputs, scenario assumptions, outputs and worked interpretation.