Drought
Sustained moisture deficit: the slow hazard that stresses water, supply and operations.
The question it answers
Where could sustained dry conditions stress our water supply, operations or value chain?
Screening drought across a portfolio
- Screens assets for drought exposure using a precipitation-deficit proxy.
- Bands the result on the shared physical-risk axis.
- Projects how moisture deficit develops across scenarios and horizons.
Inputs in, banded result out
The governed model combines the inputs below into a single banded, scenario-aware result, under formal version and change control.
Inputs
- Precipitation deficit (SPI-style proxy)
- Asset coordinates
Governed model
Drought
Anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.
Version and change controlledOutputs
- Asset drought band
- Scenario–horizon trajectory
What goes in, and where it comes from
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Precipitation deficit (SPI-style proxy)
CMIP6
A standardised measure of how far rainfall falls below the local norm.
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Asset coordinates
Client asset register
Snapped to the 0.25° grid.
The futures we test
- The precipitation-deficit proxy is read per SSP scenario and horizon.
- The measure is standardised against the local baseline, so it captures relative dryness rather than absolute rainfall.
- The band reflects meteorological drought potential, not hydrological or agricultural drought directly.
How the result is built
- Read the precipitation-deficit proxy at the asset cell for each scenario and horizon.
- Standardise against the local baseline climatology.
- Index and band on the shared physical-risk axis.
- Build the trajectory across horizons.
What you get back
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Asset drought band
Moisture-deficit exposure at screening resolution.
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Scenario–horizon trajectory
How drought exposure develops over time.
- Low
- Medium
- High
Drought exposure trajectory
Drought is chronic — read the direction of travel as much as the baseline band.
How to read the band
- Drought is chronic and cumulative: the trajectory and persistence matter, not just a single year.
- Relevant to water-dependent operations, cooling, agriculture-linked supply chains and hydropower.
- A lighter model: a single standardised signal, useful as an early flag for water-stress review.
Disclosure relevance
- IFRS S2 Chronic physical risk identification (water stress / drought).
- TCFD Chronic hazard screening across the asset base.
Limitations
- Screening scope: a meteorological proxy, not a hydrological or water-balance model.
- Local water storage, abstraction and demand are not represented.
- Does not by itself distinguish meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought.
Services
Screening-level analysis; not investment or engineering advice.
Bring drought screening to your portfolio
Screened, banded and framed for IFRS S2 and TCFD disclosure.