Cold & freeze
Cold extremes and freeze exposure: the hazard that does not disappear in a warming world.
The question it answers
Where does cold and freeze exposure still threaten our assets, processes or supply, even as average temperatures rise?
Screening cold & freeze across a portfolio
- Screens assets for cold and freeze exposure using minimum-temperature extremes.
- Bands the result on the shared physical-risk axis.
- Projects how cold exposure eases — or persists — across scenarios and horizons.
Inputs in, banded result out
The governed model combines the inputs below into a single banded, scenario-aware result, under formal version and change control.
Inputs
- Annual minimum temperature (TNn)
- Asset coordinates
Governed model
Cold & freeze
Anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.
Version and change controlledOutputs
- Asset cold band
- Scenario–horizon trajectory
What goes in, and where it comes from
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Annual minimum temperature (TNn)
CMIP6
The cold-extreme signal — the coldest night of the year.
-
Asset coordinates
Client asset register
Snapped to the 0.25° grid.
The futures we test
- Cold extremes are read per SSP scenario and horizon.
- Warming generally eases cold exposure, but the trajectory varies by region and is not uniform.
- The band reflects extreme-cold exposure, not average winter conditions.
How the result is built
- Read the minimum-temperature extreme at the asset cell for each scenario and horizon.
- Index it onto the shared physical-risk scale.
- Band as Low / Medium / High.
- Build the trajectory across horizons.
What you get back
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Asset cold band
Cold / freeze exposure at screening resolution.
-
Scenario–horizon trajectory
How cold exposure changes with warming.
- Low
- Medium
- High
Cold exposure trajectory
Many locations ease over time — but read the baseline band first, because cold risk is present-day.
How to read the band
- Cold exposure usually eases under warming, so a falling trajectory is common — but the baseline band still flags present-day freeze risk.
- Relevant to freeze-sensitive processes, water and pipework, and cold-chain logistics.
- A lighter model: fewer inputs, a single dominant signal.
Disclosure relevance
- IFRS S2 Completeness of physical-hazard coverage, including cold extremes.
- TCFD Physical hazard screening across the asset base.
Limitations
- Screening scope: a single-signal screen, lighter than the full hazard models.
- Local frost pockets, wind-chill and snow loading are not represented.
- 0.25° inputs smooth local cold extremes.
Related models
Services
Screening-level analysis; not investment or engineering advice.
Bring cold & freeze screening to your portfolio
Screened, banded and framed for IFRS S2 and TCFD disclosure.