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Scenario Analyses
04 / 10 Compound physical full-depth

Integrated flooding

River and surface-water flood exposure read together on one band-aligned axis.

The question it answers

When we consider river overflow and surface-water flooding together, which assets carry the highest overall flood exposure?

What it does

Screening integrated flooding across a portfolio

  • Combines the river and pluvial flood models into a single compound flood view.
  • Keeps both hazards on the same band-aligned axis so the combined result is comparable across assets.
  • Gives one flood band per asset, projected across SSP scenarios and horizons.
How it works

Inputs in, banded result out

The governed model combines the inputs below into a single banded, scenario-aware result, under formal version and change control.

Inputs

  • River (fluvial) band
  • Pluvial (surface-water) band

Governed model

Integrated flooding

Anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.

Version and change controlled

Outputs

  • Integrated flood band
  • Component breakdown
  • Portfolio roll-up
Inputs & sources

What goes in, and where it comes from

  • River (fluvial) band

    River flooding model

    The fluvial component, already banded on the shared axis.

  • Pluvial (surface-water) band

    Pluvial flooding model

    The surface-water component, on the same axis.

Scenario assumptions

The futures we test

  • Both component models are evaluated under the same scenario and horizon before they are combined.
  • Components share a common band-aligned axis, so neither hazard is double-counted or drowned out.
  • The integrated band reflects compound flood exposure, not the sum of independent events.
Method

How the result is built

  1. Take the river and pluvial results for an asset under the same scenario and horizon.
  2. Combine them on the shared band-aligned axis into a single compound exposure score.
  3. Resolve to one integrated Low / Medium / High flood band.
  4. Repeat across scenarios and horizons to build the trajectory.
Outputs

What you get back

  • Integrated flood band

    Single compound flood exposure per asset.

  • Component breakdown

    How much the river vs pluvial component contributes.

  • Portfolio roll-up

    Compound flood exposure across the asset base.

  • Low
  • Medium
  • High

Portfolio flood-band migration

How the integrated flood mix shifts as the scenario hardens.

62% 28% 10% SSP1-2.6 Low emissions 50% 34% 16% SSP2-4.5 Middle of the road 38% 38% 24% SSP3-7.0 Regional rivalry 29% 39% 32% SSP5-8.5 Fossil-fuelled
Interpretation

How to read the band

  • Use the integrated band as your single flood-screening view; drop into the river or pluvial pages when you need to know which driver dominates.
  • An asset can be Medium for both river and pluvial yet integrate to High — compound exposure is the point.
  • As with the components, High means "investigate further", not "loss expected".

Disclosure relevance

  • IFRS S2 Aggregate physical-risk exposure across related hazards.
  • IFRS S2 Resilience assessment for compound flood risk.
  • TCFD Portfolio-level physical risk metrics.

Limitations

  • Inherits the limitations of both the river and pluvial models.
  • Screening scope: a prioritisation view, not a combined hydraulic model.
  • Does not model interaction effects beyond the shared band-aligned combination.

Screening-level analysis; not investment or engineering advice.

Bring integrated flooding screening to your portfolio

Screened, banded and framed for IFRS S2 and TCFD disclosure.