Tropical cyclone
Cyclone wind exposure from historical tracks, scaled to a warming world.
The question it answers
Which assets sit in cyclone-exposed locations, and how does that wind exposure change as the planet warms?
Screening tropical cyclone across a portfolio
- Screens assets for tropical-cyclone wind exposure using the historical track record.
- Translates tracks into site wind through a parametric wind-decay treatment and annual exceedance probability.
- Scales exposure to global warming levels so results read across scenarios and horizons.
Inputs in, banded result out
The governed model combines the inputs below into a single banded, scenario-aware result, under formal version and change control.
Inputs
- Historical cyclone tracks (from 1980)
- Parametric wind field & decay
- Global warming level scaling
Governed model
Tropical cyclone
Anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.
Version and change controlledOutputs
- Asset wind-exposure band
- Exceedance curve
- Scenario–horizon trajectory
What goes in, and where it comes from
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Historical cyclone tracks (from 1980)
Best-track records
The observed basis for where and how often cyclones pass.
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Parametric wind field & decay
Established wind-decay treatment
Turns a track into site-level wind, including overland decay.
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Global warming level scaling
IPCC AR6 WG1 pattern-scaling
Anchors forward change in cyclone intensity to warming levels.
The futures we test
- Baseline exposure is built from observed tracks since 1980 via annual exceedance probability.
- Forward change is applied by pattern-scaling to global warming levels, anchored to IPCC AR6 WG1.
- A v2 pathway scales CHAZ synthetic tracks by cyclone category to the relevant warming level.
How the result is built
- Assemble historical tracks and derive an annual exceedance probability of damaging wind at each asset.
- Apply a parametric wind field with overland decay to get site wind speeds.
- Scale the exposure to the relevant global warming level using AR6-anchored pattern-scaling.
- Band the result on the shared physical-risk axis, per scenario and horizon.
What you get back
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Asset wind-exposure band
Cyclone wind exposure at screening resolution.
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Exceedance curve
Annual probability of exceeding wind thresholds at the asset.
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Scenario–horizon trajectory
How exposure scales with warming levels.
- Low
- Medium
- High
Annual exceedance probability
The chance per year of exceeding a given wind level at the asset — flatter tails mean rarer, stronger events.
How to read the band
- A High band reflects frequent or intense modelled cyclone wind at the location — it does not predict a specific landfall.
- Read the exceedance curve for the return-period view: the same band can hide very different tail shapes.
- Warming-level scaling shifts intensity more than frequency in most basins — expect trajectory change concentrated in the strongest events.
Disclosure relevance
- IFRS S2 Acute physical risk identification for wind-exposed assets.
- IFRS S2 Resilience under warming-level scenarios.
- TCFD Physical hazard metrics and exposure.
Limitations
- Screening scope: a wind-exposure screen, not an engineering wind-load or cat-loss model.
- Cyclone-driven surge and rainfall are handled in the coastal and flood models, not here.
- The historical record since 1980 under-samples the rarest tracks; pattern-scaling carries structural uncertainty.
Related models
Services
Screening-level analysis; not investment or engineering advice.
Bring tropical cyclone screening to your portfolio
Screened, banded and framed for IFRS S2 and TCFD disclosure.