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Scenario Analyses
09 / 10 Acute physical lighter-depth

Landslide

Rainfall-triggered slope failure where intense rain meets steep ground.

The question it answers

Which assets sit where intense rainfall and steep slopes combine to make slope failure credible?

What it does

Screening landslide across a portfolio

  • Screens assets for rainfall-triggered landslide exposure.
  • Combines extreme-rainfall indices with the steepness of the site.
  • Bands the result and projects it across scenarios and horizons.
How it works

Inputs in, banded result out

The governed model combines the inputs below into a single banded, scenario-aware result, under formal version and change control.

Inputs

  • Extreme-rainfall indices (rx1day, rx5day)
  • Site slope

Governed model

Landslide

Anchored to public, peer-reviewed climate science.

Version and change controlled

Outputs

  • Asset landslide band
  • Scenario–horizon trajectory
Inputs & sources

What goes in, and where it comes from

  • Extreme-rainfall indices (rx1day, rx5day)

    CMIP6

    The rainfall trigger — short, intense bursts and multi-day totals.

  • Site slope

    Global DEM

    The susceptibility factor — steeper ground fails more readily.

Scenario assumptions

The futures we test

  • Rainfall extremes are read per SSP scenario and horizon.
  • Slope is treated as the present-day terrain the rainfall acts on.
  • The band reflects the combination of trigger and susceptibility, not soil mechanics.
Method

How the result is built

  1. Read extreme-rainfall indices at the asset cell for each scenario and horizon.
  2. Weight by site slope so steep locations score higher for the same rainfall.
  3. Combine into a composite score and band on the shared physical-risk axis.
  4. Build the trajectory across horizons.
Outputs

What you get back

  • Asset landslide band

    Slope-failure exposure at screening resolution.

  • Scenario–horizon trajectory

    How exposure tracks rainfall intensification.

  • Low
  • Medium
  • High

Landslide exposure trajectory

Trajectories follow rainfall intensification, which rises under higher scenarios.

Baseline 2030 2040 2050
Interpretation

How to read the band

  • High bands need both ingredients — intense rainfall and steep ground; flat sites screen low even in wet climates.
  • A lighter model: it flags where a geotechnical review is worth commissioning, not where a slope will fail.
  • Read alongside the pluvial model where both rainfall hazards matter.

Disclosure relevance

  • IFRS S2 Identification of geophysical hazards triggered by climate extremes.
  • TCFD Physical hazard screening coverage.

Limitations

  • Screening scope: not a geotechnical or soil-stability model.
  • Soil type, geology, vegetation and drainage are not represented.
  • 0.25° rainfall inputs smooth the local convective extremes that trigger many slides.

Screening-level analysis; not investment or engineering advice.

Bring landslide screening to your portfolio

Screened, banded and framed for IFRS S2 and TCFD disclosure.