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Scenario Analyses
Sample outputs

What a result looks like

Illustrative, synthetic outputs, chosen to show how results read, not to disclose real client data or thresholds. Read the band first, then the trajectory.

Shared risk-band axis

  • Low — Limited screening exposure under the assessed conditions
  • Medium — Elevated screening exposure worth monitoring and planning for
  • High — Priority exposure requiring more detailed review using site-specific information
Single asset

Exposure trajectory

How one asset's band moves from baseline through 2030, 2040 and 2050 under a chosen scenario.

Baseline 2030 2040 2050
62% 28% 10% SSP1-2.6 Low emissions 50% 34% 16% SSP2-4.5 Middle of the road 38% 38% 24% SSP3-7.0 Regional rivalry 29% 39% 32% SSP5-8.5 Fossil-fuelled
Portfolio

Band migration across scenarios

How the mix of Low / Medium / High assets shifts as the scenario hardens: the portfolio view a board needs.

Geography

Regional exposure tiles

Where exposure concentrates across regions, with asset counts.

  • South-East Asia High 24 assets
  • East Asia Medium 31 assets
  • South Asia High 18 assets
  • Western Europe Low 27 assets
  • North America Medium 22 assets
  • Middle East Medium 9 assets
  • Sub-Saharan Africa Medium 12 assets
  • Oceania Low 8 assets
Heat

Scenario fan

The spread between SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 widens with time, where the emissions pathway changes the answer.

Baseline203020402050
SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5
2025203020402050
Orderly Disorderly Too Little, Too Late Hot House World Illustrative pathway shape — normalised index, not price levels.
Transition

Carbon-price pathways

The NGFS Orderly, Disorderly, Too Little Too Late and Hot House World narratives priced over time (illustrative shape, not price levels).

Cyclone

Exceedance curve

The annual probability of exceeding a given wind level at an asset.

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Wind-intensity index →
Annual probability of exceeding a given wind level (illustrative). The flat tail at higher intensities marks rarer, more severe events.
The deliverable

What's in a report

Our reporting system assembles the selected analyses into a structured, decision-useful report. A typical report runs to roughly 38 to 64 pages and includes, in order:

  • 01 Executive Summary
  • 02 Portfolio Exposure Overview
  • 03 Scope and Boundary
  • 04 Scenario Framework
  • 05 Time Horizons
  • 06 Models and Methods
  • 07 Key Findings and Hazard Ranking
  • 08 Hazard Exposure Matrix
  • 09 Scenario Trend
  • 10 Per-hazard sections
  • 11 Geographic Concentration
  • 12 Cross-Hazard Synthesis
  • 13 Strategic Implications
  • 14 Transition Risk
  • 15 Climate Variable Trends
  • 16 Overall Assessment
  • 17 Limitations and Basis of Preparation
  • 18 IFRS S2 / TCFD Supporting Evidence Index
  • 19 Appendix A: Governed Model Register
  • 20 Appendix B: Asset-Level Screening
  • 21 Appendices C / D: Country breakdowns

Each finding in the report is tied to the scenario, horizon and dataset it draws on, and every map is banded on the shared Low / Medium / High axis. Physical hazards are screened geographically at the asset level; transition exposure is assessed from organisational emissions, financial data and NGFS carbon-price pathways.

See these outputs for your own assets

We can run your portfolio and send a sample report that shows exactly how the results read.